Assessment of traffic forecasts and operational concepts
Strategic measures for upgrading, expansion or even new construction..
.. of transport infrastructure are based on long-term forecasts. These requirements are used in a model based on specific operational assumptions to determine the necessary capacities and to estimate possible negative effects (light and noise emissions, pollutants, etc.).
Both the (time-related) forecasts themselves and the (often highly simplified) operational models are frequently questioned by environmental and other interest groups, local residents and affected communities, districts and states, as well as by the market players themselves.
Assessment of forecast-based train numbers in rail freight transport in a corridor
Task:
Review of the expected train numbers, which were determined in advance of the construction of a new line for economic justification purposes using a methodology that was not specified in detail publicly.
Objective:
To enable the client to make a qualified assessment of the postulated train numbers and thus to critically question the emission control measures anchored in the project.
Solution approach:
Development of a realistic capacity requirement model at the level of individual train services, taking into account the technical and operational parameters that actually prevail in the industry for the different freight groups.
Application of this capacity model to the forecast values, taking into account additional usual commercial and operational influencing factors.
Result:
With unchanged forecast values regarding expected freight volumes, a noticeable increase in the number of trains compared to the official forecast values is to be expected – primarily due to overly optimistic assumptions about future achievable train utilisation, i.e. concerning lengths and gross weight requirements. This will also lead to an increase in environmental impacts, most noteably noise emissions. The underlying reasons for this are the assumptions regarding the infrastructure and thus the capacity situation of the rail network, as well as a too simplistic modelling of generic train utilisation in the forecast that only partially reflects the actual complexity of railway operations.
