Development of rail infrastructure and anticipated traffic development
The development of the federal railway network (DBInfraGo)…
… is financed and planned according to federal policy guidelines. A distinction is made between expansion and new construction projects. These are grouped according to their planned benefits and priorities, e.g., as urgent needs. New lines, in particular, generate numerous impacts along the route, including land use, noise and vibration emissions, electromagnetic fields, and much more. The precise dimensions of these impacts, in turn, determine the design of specific countermeasures.
Example of an analysis of potential traffic developments on a new rail line
Task:
On behalf of a public client, it was necessary to determine how the number of freight trains might develop for the target horizon of the traffic forecast at that time. The volume forecast as well as potential intermodal shift effects, which were anticipated as a result of the infrastructure project, had to be taken into account.
Objective:
For specific scenarios, the number of possible freight trains per unit of time for this cross-border traffic was to be determined. The existing framework of assumptions—as described—was to be considered and, where necessary, supplemented with current market conditions.
Approach:
Data research and analysis of available sources Comparison of actual and projected market developments Derivation of potential freight train numbers per day, taking into account various scenarios regarding market development and operational conditions
Result:
The framework of the forecast assumptions was analyzed in detail. Using additional sources, the forecast statements were compared and commented upon. It became clear that a crucial factor in the forecast concerns the assumed competitiveness of rail (market supply, conditions, productivity). Furthermore, assumptions had to be made regarding the forecast itself: what would happen to the train number result if the volume forecast were exceeded or fallen short by ten or twenty percent? Based on these assumptions, a beam of projections illustrating the expected freight train number developments for the coming years was generated. These, in turn, should form the basis for further discussions with the various stakeholders.
